Thursday, December 31, 2009

2009 Predictions -- More Right Than Wrong

On New Years Day this (last) year, I made a few predictions for 2009.  It's a silly excercise reserved for people with some kind of media presence who think anyone cares what they think.  It's also a reality check to see how well you are tuned in to an unpredictable world.

What'd I say?  Oh...

Barack Obama will start his term with a tremendous amount of good will and support for his economic stimulus package – whatever it is – because too many people will want and need it to succeed. True, as far as it went, and the plan has had more positive effect than it has been given credit for.  There is no way to know how much the injection of hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy stopped the deadly skid Obama inherited. Except that it did.

If Republicans get in the way on the basis of their usual petty nonsense, they will just dig a deeper hole for themselves. No "if" here.  The Party of No has been remarkably unified in their opposition to any hint of grown-up, Democratic accomplishment.  They are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, snuggled in the soft bosom of their alternate-universe talk-radio/Fox News circle-jerk, where Tea Bagging opportunists cavort with bad actors like Glenn Beck and bad legislators like Michele Bachmann.  We won't really know how deep a hole they are digging themselves until the 2010 elections they have already declared won, when they pick up only a few seats in the House and one or two in the Senate.  If they're lucky.

Barack Obama will start his term with a tremendous amount of good will and support around the world as he tries put the nation in a position to recover from the tremendous damage done by the arrogant, radical and reckless Bush administration...Not all of the damage is reparable, but Obama will have an advantage because of his background, because he has Clinton leading the effort and, most importantly, because he is Not Bush. Exactly right, his success in turning around America's image in the world exemplified by the premature awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize. Obama's nuanced, intellgent juggling of America's responsibilities in the world has led to a lowering of the anti-American temperature around the globe.  And he is certainly Not Bush.  And Not Cheney. And Not McCain.  And Not Lieberman. And that's all good.

Hillary Clinton won’t be home much as she jets around the globe on a mission to unruffle feathers and get America back to its deserved respected-leader status. Clinton has been Obama's secret weapon around the globe, as she has employed her remarkable talents in the service of American interests.

America and the world will breathe a collective sigh of relief when our brave troops start coming home from Iraq. Iraq?  What Iraq? Bush's Stupid War continues to wind down as the focus of our anti-al-Qaeda campaign moves where it belongs; to Afghanistan, Pakistan and -- now, apparently -- Yemen.

Violence there will increase, as the kind of thugs who have always run that country make their move. In the end, Iraq will end up right where it started – with the meanest son-of-a-bitch in the country presiding over a brutal regime. The only difference between that guy and Hussein will be that Iraq will be a theocracy, aligned with Iran, and even more of a potential threat to Israel. Nice work, Bush.  Recent celebrations of the success of Iraqi "democracy" in the continued propaganda campaign to validate Bush's Stupid War after-the-fact are drastically premature.  When the dust settles in five or ten years, Iraq will be much more of a threat to Israel and our interests than it ever was under Hussein.

Obama will have a chance to appoint at least two Supreme Court justices and, unlike Bush, will nominate people with impeccable legal pedigrees and no discernable ideological tilt, except for the inclination to be fair, which is a lefty trait, anyway. Republicans and their wing-nut lap dogs will pretend they are all lefty socialists anyway, and the general public will ignore them and move on.  Well, only one vacancy in the first year, but everything else was exactly right.  The public was not impressed with the Republican's childish attack on Justice Sotomayor.

Obama will end the year with an approval rating in the high 60s or higher. Yeah, well, a bit off.  Obama has met the perfect storm of 10% unemployment, an unprecedented echo-chamber of right-wing blather willing to tell any lie, and a bunch of snooty lefties who think they could do it better than he can.  Under these circumstances, it's amazing he's hovering at 50%.

Talk-radio clowns will continue to be completely flummoxed by Obama’s success and popularity, and will suffer ratings problems as a result. By the end of the year, they will spend more than half their time talking about finances and sports. The wing-nuts found their groove by creating and latching onto the Tea Party concept, which found obnoxious voice for all the imbicles who hate and resent Obama for racist and other reasons.  Their demogogory of health insurance reform, including (especially) scaring the elderly about "death panels", has been the most reprehensible performance by mainstream politicians since Florida congressmen like Joe Scarboro defended Bush's theft of democracy in that state in 2000.

Locally, the radio wing-nuts will shill full-time for Scott Walker’s campaign for governor. Their in-kind contributions will not be reported to the Government Accountability Board.  Just wait.  They are just getting warmed up.

The conversion from analog to digital television in February will be delayed when it becomes clear that the need for a converter box will take free TV away from millions of Americans who still don’t have the box and couldn’t figure out how it works if they did.  The first of my predictions to actually come true, as the date was moved to June.  Unfortunately, it has now taken place.  All over the poor and underclass, TV showing nothing by snow are gathering dust in closets.  Sadly, a little less Judge Judy for everyone.

 The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel will follow the lead of the Detroit Free Press and limit home delivery to three days a week. By the end of the year, the paper will stop pretending to have separate sections and fold everything into two sections; maybe one. The paper continues to be flumoxed by its crashing business model, but no limited home deliveries yet.  The Local section has been folded into the front page on Monday.  A four-page Business page here, a four-page Cue section there.  And after the Packers finish their run this year, can a four-page Sports page be far behind?

The paper will resort to hysterical headlines and endless self-righteous campaigns, like its current one about drunk driving. The paper's various hysterical campaigns against drunk driving, BPA, backups at the Patent Office (wha?), and the inner-city child care industry (while those reaping millions of state dollars scamming the J-S precious "choice" school program remain uninvestigated) continue apace.  Last Sunday, the paper spent three or four whole pages telling you how wonderful they were. 

If something is missing from the paper, referrals will be made to the on-line edition. All day, everyday.

No matter what happens, the J-S will continue to find room to run 25-inches of Patrick McIlheran's blathering three days a week. By the end of the year, his tedious right-wing talking-point recitals will take up 25 percent of the available non-ad column inches.  I think his column in the dead-tree edition are now down to two a week, but Paddy Mac continues to be the most fact-challenged, unaccountable, talking-pointed columnist in the paper's once-distinguished history.  The Illusory One has made tracking McIlheran a hilarious special project, to everyone's benefit.

The Brewers spend money and, maybe, trade one of their young superstars to create a decent-enough starting rotation.  Not quite.  They could have got some decent arms for Corey hart or J.J. Hardy early in the season, but even they didn't see how far they would fall.  The rotation was a mess all year.

Prince Fielder will come into camp having dropped 30 pounds.  Wishful thinking, but what a year after a slow start. 

Corey Hart will drop his at-bat country music for Nirvana and, this time, have a complete season. Ooops.  Sorry.

National League pitchers will continue to be stymied by Ryan Braun, who will hit 45+ homers despite being the most-walked batter in the league.  Not Braun -- Fielder.

The Brewers will win 90+ and win the division.  No.  Not enough pitching.

Despite strong lefty credentials and occasional accidental brilliance, Plaisted Writes will not be recognized by the Shepherd Express' Best of the Blogs page.  An easy prediction. 

Also, sometime this year, society page embarassments Boris and Doris will be invited to a party where no one but them shows up. They will write it up as a wonderful evening with Lou Fortis, Rip Tenor (as S-E mascot Art Kubalek) and other close friends.  All true but the write-up.

Finally, although I didn't predict it, this has been an admittedly shit year for Plaisted Writes.  I posted half as much as last year, even though there was plenty to talk about, and what I did write wasn't all that hot.  My Blogger page tells me this is my 300th post.  Here's to a better, more productive 2010.


Jim Bouman said...

Re: predictions 3 and 4, particularly the encomiums for Sec. of State Clinton.

I had enough of Clintonism in the 90s. The second act has brought back too many elements of Bill's worst blind spots.

1. Cuba. Every year for the past 18, the the UN General Assembly has voted nearly unanimously (189-3 in 2009)to direct the US to end the travel ban and the embargo. Ignoring the 50 years of futility and stupidity embodied in our policy on Cuba, we have insisted that we will not budge, we will not even talk with the Cubans on substantive matters.
Our diplomatic position (Hilary's bailiwick) is: "You change; then we can talk". This is not a reasonable opening gambit in anyone's paradigm for starting diplomatic talks. The ultimatum that Cuba stares at--as a precondition for discussion--requires un-doing the entire Cuban Revolution.
Whatever we think of the Cuban system and governance, we have no say in what kind of government there shall be in Cuba. Many Cubans on the island are profoundly unhappy with the life they must lead. But--in my opinion--none of them are about to repudiate the fundamentals of their revolution and their emeritus leader, Fidel. The Cubans say: "Keep the damned Yanquis out of Cuba; we've seen what they did in the past. Fidel kicked the Yanquis in the shins, threw out the damned mafia thugs along with Uncle Sam and those uppercrust Cuban exploiters who made Cuba the principal whorehouse and feudal society of the Caribbean".

2. Hilary persuaded Obama to assert that he will not now--nor in the future--sign the treaty banning landmines.

For these two reasons, I say that both Obama and Clinton should (and probaly will) go to hell.

Anonymous said...

Wow. I know a lot of people who drank the Bush kool-aid, but your kook-aid binge with Obama is epic. Holy sh*t.

Anonymous said...

North Dakota will go to Republicans and polls show Harry "the rat" Reid losing badly in Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin will win the state elections, Conneticut will be a toss-up, as Dodd is jumping the sinking ship. My prediction, Republicans gain 4-6senate seats, plus 70-90 House Seats mostly from the GOP leaning districts that went Democrat in 2006, independents are breaking 2:1in favor of republicans, and mikey, we don't need a majority. If we gain only 1 or 2 senate seats as you predict we will slam on the brakes of the obamination and he will accomplish absolutey NOTHING in his remaining term, I repat NOTHING. Cap and trade is DEAD in 2010, and a roll back of any "Obamacare" will then begin, Mikey heaslthcare is not a RIGHT, but a PERSONNAL RESPONSIBILITY, we are not a European welfare socialist state"

Anonymous said...

Leftists like Mike feel that healthcare should be free for everyone except the rich who are obligated to pay for it. I'm still waiting for my mortgage to be paid for by Obama.

Anonymous said...

Amusing that you batted .000 on predictions stated as measurable numbers. Better stick with the unfalsifiable ones.

Anonymous said...

LMAO, Brown won you fucking liberal socialist piece of crap!!
OBAMACARE IS FUCKING DEAD! Cap and trade is dead, amnestry for illegal immigrants is dead, so much for liberals controlling things for a generation! Another big mistake as far as pridictions go!!

Anonymous said...

I can't wait for the Mike Plaisted blog about the demise and eventual death of the Democrat Party as we know it in light of the incredibly historic upset win yesterday is Massachusetts.

Anonymous said...

Geez Mike, I can see why you're not blogging much anymore. With that recurring angst driven cyberstalker spewing his lunatic fringe nonsense I can't say I blame you much.

Anonymous said...

In response to last Anonymous post, we are not the "lunatic fringe" we are the vast Main stream majority in this country, so many people after only one year are ashamed of voting for the obamination, most now lie and say they never voted for the idiot. In November Republicans regain the senate and 90 seats in the House. That prediction is a sure bet, Mikey! Unlike Mikes loser predictions!